Warriors vs. Grizzlies prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Game 3 bets from model on 86-58 run

Following a memorable Game 2 win at home, the Memphis Grizzlies hit the road for Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinals on Saturday evening in the 2022 NBA playoffs. The Grizzlies visit Chase Center to face the Golden State Warriors, with Memphis aiming to re-establish home-court advantage. Golden State won Game 1, leaving the series knotted at 1-1 in advance of a pivotal matchup. Dillon Brooks (suspension) and Santi Aldama (knee) are out for the Grizzlies. Gary Payton II (elbow) and Andre Iguodala (back) are out for the Warriors.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a 7.5-point home favorite for this 8:30 p.m. ET tip. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 225.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds. Before locking in any Grizzlies vs. Warriors picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model enters the third full week of the 2022 NBA playoffs on a stunning 86-58 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Grizzlies, and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Grizzlies vs. Warriors:

  • Warriors vs. Grizzlies spread: Warriors -7.5
  • Warriors vs. Grizzlies over-under: 225.5 points
  • Warriors vs. Grizzlies money line: Warriors -320, Grizzlies +250
  • MEM: The Grizzlies are 5-3 against the spread in playoff games
  • GSW: The Warriors are 3-4 against the spread in playoff games

Featured Game | Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Why the Grizzlies can cover

With Ja Morant at the helm, the Grizzlies are impressive on offense. Morant is averaging 40.5 points, 9.0 assists and 8.5 rebounds per game in the series, and Memphis ranked in the top five of the NBA in offensive rating during the regular season. Memphis led the NBA in offensive rebound rate, second-chance points, fast break points and points in the paint in 2021-22, and the Grizzlies are leading the NBA playoffs 2022 with 29.9 free throw attempts per game.

In the playoffs, Memphis is also grabbing more than 30 percent of missed shots on the offensive glass, with Golden State struggling to a 67.2 percent defensive rebound rate that is well below-average. On the defensive end, Memphis is holding opponents to 105.9 points per 100 possessions in playoff games, leading the NBA playoffs in turnover creation (17.8 per game) and steals (9.1 per game). The Warriors finished second-to-last in the NBA in turnover prevention on offense during the regular season, and the Grizzlies also led the regular season in both steals and blocks.

Why the Warriors can cover

The Warriors are in a groove on offense. Golden State is scoring 117.3 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs, the No. 2 mark in the NBA, and that number jumps to 123.6 points per 100 possessions in home postseason games. The Warriors are out-scoring opponents by 13.3 points per 100 possessions at Chase Center, and Golden State’s 60.1 percent true shooting mark in the playoffs is elite. Golden State is a fantastic passing team, averaging a league-leading 28.7 assists per game in the playoffs, and the Warriors assist on 68.1 percent of field goals with 1.99 assists per turnover. 

The Warriors are also creating second-chance opportunities with a 28.0 percent offensive rebound rate in the playoffs, and Golden State was a top-tier team in both 3-point accuracy (36.4 percent) and 3-pointers (14.3 per game) in the regular season. The Warriors are threatening in transition with 13.8 fast break points per game in 2021-22, and Stephen Curry led the entire NBA with 285 3-pointers on the way to 25.5 points per game this season.

How to make Grizzlies vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 218 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model’s Warriors vs. Grizzlies picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Grizzlies vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out. 

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