As the clock ticks closer and closer to the NBA Draft, it seems increasingly likely that the Detroit Pistons, picking at No. 1 on Thursday, will make Oklahoma State star Cade Cunningham the top overall pick. And odds posted at William Hill Sportsbook seem to rather emphatically back that up.
Cunningham is -8000 (!) to go No. 1 overall on draft night. That means if you bet $100, your payout would net you a whopping … $1.25 return.
There has been plenty of buzz over the last week about Jalen Green’s impressive workout with the Pistons and the impact it may have on Detroit’s decision. Could he go No. 1? Would Detroit really take him over Cunningham? It all feels like posturing now based on his odds to go No. 1 at +1600. Evan Mobley is +2000.
Here’s a look at the updated odds among the rest of the field on who will go No. 1 overall with odds courtesy of William Hill Sportsbook.
Odds to go No. 1 in the 2021 NBA Draft
Cade Cunningham-8000Jalen Green+1600Evan Mobley+2000Jalen Suggs+2500Jonathan Kuminga+4000Scottie Barnes+4000Davion Mitchell+8000Keon Johnson+8000Moses Moody+10000Jalen Johnson+10000Josh Giddey+15000Corey Kispert+15000James Bouknight+15000Franz Wagner+15000Zaire Williams+15000
There’s really no value here unless you’re convinced Green’s workout with the Pistons completely swayed the front office. I’m not. But -8000 odds for Cunningham? There’s value elsewhere in the draft and I like in particular a few prop bets that are on the board.
James Bouknight draft position
Prop: Over/under 6.5
I lean under here. The top five will likely be comprised of Cunningham, Green, Mobley, Jalen Suggs and Scottie Barnes. So the buzz that OKC at No. 6 could be a potential Bouknight destination makes a ton of sense. The big question here: Would the Thunder take the mega swing on Jonathan Kuminga instead (if he’s still on the board)? Another question: What if OKC, with picks Nos. 6, 16 and 18, use their assets to move up and shake the draft up entirely? Then there’s real uncertainty and maybe the team picking at No. 6 would lean Kuminga or Moses Moody or Franz Wagner. If OKC stands pat I think Bouknight is the selection but if not, he could be Golden State-bound — at No. 7.
Franz Wagner draft position
Prop: Over/under 9.5
Josh Giddey draft position
Prop: Over/under 10.5
I have a problem, apparently: I really like the under on a lot of these. So, naturally, I’m leaning under on this one, too. Memphis’ move from No. 17 to No. 10 in this draft was reportedly done with the intent of giving Giddey strong consideration, and while I’m not convinced he could go much higher, I’m not convinced he doesn’t go precisely under at No.10. Strong playmaker who’d be a really good fit in Memphis.
Jonathan Kuminga draft position
Prop: Over/under 6.5
The first over on the board for me. At this point I’m betting Bouknight-to-OKC and Golden State passing on Kuminga at 7. He’s a potential fit for Orlando at No. 8, Sacramento at No. 9 or even the Grizzlies at No. 10. Can’t see him falling out of the lottery but can see him getting out of the top six.
Sharife Cooper draft position
Prop: Over/under 23.5
Quentin Grimes draft position
Prop: Over/under 31.5
This one feels a tad out of wack and one I noticed almost instantly. I have him mocked at No. 27 to the Nets and think even Denver at No. 26 or the 76ers at No. 28 make some sense. Good chance he lands in the first round.